Forget the Triple-dip…we’re now up to the Quadruple-dip!

I just read this analysis on one of my favorite blogs: ZeroHedge.com;

“the just released March Case Shiller data puts this latest speculation very much in doubt (once again), following a miss of consensus expectations in the Top 20 Composite of a 0.20% increase, printing at half that, or 0.09%, and more importantly, a decline from the February rate of increase, which was 0.15%. The non-seasonally adjusted number declined by 0.03%, the 7th consecutive drop in a row. All this begs the question: did housing just quadruple dip, with a February local extreme in the Sequential rate of change. As the chart below shows, we had comparable peaks in the summer of 2009, in April 2010, and again in April 2011, following which the downward slide resumed every single time once the temporary benefits of monetary and fiscal easing subsided. Also, recall that March was the last month receiving benefits of a record warm winter: in effect a mini demand pull program. And now comes the hangover. Bottom line: based on a broad index, housing is about to decline once again, and make a total joke out of all those who, yet again, made "bold" annual housing bottom predictions…

This from the actual Case-Shiller report:

“While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This month’s report saw all three composites and five cities hit new lows. However, with last month’s report nine cities hit new lows. Further, about half as many cities, seven, experienced falling prices this month compared to 16 last time.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 2.6 percent from a year earlier after a 3.5 percent drop in February, the group reported today in New York. The decline matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The index rose from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Take a look at the chart below that I marked-up. It seems to me that the media/industry groups have started calling the summer selling pattern a “recovery”. That being said…if you have equity in your home and are thinking about selling, this summer season (June/July/August) may be a good time to jump in.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Call me directly at 561.602.1258

Choose your preferred headline of the week…is the market good/bad/better/worse?

Palm Beach County homes sales surge

From the Palm Beach Post: April's single-family home sales in Palm Beach County rose a whopping 67.9 percent from a year ago, a surge that underscores the growing belief that buying a home now is a good bet.

There were 2,186 pending home sales in April, up from 1,302 during the same month last year. Townhouses and condo pending sales are up 39.2 percent, to 2,051 in April from 1,473 a year ago.

Pricing is reflecting the renewed buyer interest in home purchasing. The median sale price of a single-family homes in Palm Beach County is $210,100, up from $199,900 the same time last year and up 6.6 percent from March. The median townhouse and condo price is $88,636, up from $85,000 a year ago.

"Prices are climbing as demand increases and inventory levels decrease," said Bonnie Lazar, 2012 President for the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. "Inventory is slightly below normal levels, dropping over 50 percent from the previous year."

April single-family home inventory declined 55.5 percent to 5.7 months from 12.8 months a year ago. It was the same story for townhomes and condos, which fell 53.8 percent to 5.5 months from 11.9 a year ago.

Lazar said that trend should mean continued growth in home sales and median prices.

Florida still leads nation in delinquent loans, Mortgage Brokers say

Also from the Palm Beach Post: Florida still has the dubious distinction of leading the nation in “seriously delinquent” home loans, the Mortgage Brokers Association says today.

Some 17.92 percent of Florida home loans were 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure during the first quarter. Nevada was a distant second with 12.63 percent of its loans seriously delinquent.

Florida carries burden of 30 percent of nation’s shadow inventory

Another recent Palm Beach Post article: The Sunshine State’s shadow inventory of 550,000 homes makes up a third of the nation’s unlisted distressed properties according to a report released this week by the Florida Realtors.

Florida Realtors chief economist John Tuccillo said despite the large volume, the slow leak of homes onto the market, as well as an increase in short sales, shouldn’t crash prices as many have feared.

The report, released Tuesday, defines shadow inventory as homes with mortgages 90 days or more delinquent, homes in the process of foreclosure and homes repossessed by the bank but not yet listed for sale.

Goldman Sachs predicts that homeownership rates will decline into 2014

Goldman Sachs recently released a study looking at the housing market and attempted to analyze a bottom in regards to the homeownership rate. One of their major key figures dragging the rate lower was of course, the shadow inventory and the dismal employment outlook.

 

So…there you have it…clear as pea soup.

But if you’re reading this blog and considering buying OR selling, lets talk about what your best option is given your goals and timeframe.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson - 561*602*1258

Does It Pay To Stay?

 

DoesItPayToStay.com

A tough question deserves an honest answer.

And one of the toughest questions homeowners are asking us every day is, “Do I short sell my home or stay and wait until I can get out even?” Either way, to make the best decision, you should have all of the information in front of you...

That's why we created a very specific online calculator to help you ‘crunch the numbers’.

Being able to see the current market value of your home and projecting when your investment will break-even is invaluable to your decision making process. With our calculator you’ll be able to do so (for free) in a matter of minutes!

Take a look at the short video below, or go right to the calculator and find out...does it pay to stay?

DoesItPayToStay.com

 

Should I Short Sale My Palm Beach County Home?|

How Do I Short Sale My Lake Worth Home?

Happy Mothers Day

 

Robert Schiller of the Case-Shiller home price index says, “the world is in a late great depression”!

Yale economist Robert Shiller recently participated in a CNBC interview and gave a chilling analysis of the world economy as well as our housing market…some excerpts below:

The global economy is mired in a "late Great Depression" despite central bank stimulus policies, says Yale economist and author Robert Shiller.
"Our whole economy has been affected by variations in confidence. Central banks are sort of trusted, but the actions they have often affect people’s confidence by appearance rather than substance. We’re not in the most trusting mood now,” Shiller tells CNBC.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have propped up their respective economies via liquidity injections known as quantitative easing, tools designed to spur recovery but dubbed by critics as printing money out of thin air. He says the world is in a “new age of austerity.”

Shiller, designer of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller house price index, adds it's "really hard to forecast" if the U.S. housing market is finally recovering but does find one bright spot.
"The general presumption is that home prices are going down and that's good – it'll make them more affordable."

"Reuters: NEW YORK – The United States housing market is likely to
remain weak and may take a generation or more to rebound, Yale
economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider on Tuesday.
 
Mr. Shiller, the co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller
home price index, said a weak labor market, high gas prices and
a general sense of unease among consumers was outweighing low
mortgage rates and would likely keep a lid on prices for the
foreseeable future.

“I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in our
lifetimes,” Mr. Shiller said

He said suburban areas in particular might endure further price declines
as high gas prices increase demand for “walkable cities.”

Cheaper housing prices will encourage many to avoid relying on their homes as the bulk of their investment portfolio and diversify, which is a good thing, Shiller adds. "Fifty years ago, there wasn’t this talk of housing as an investment. It was a zeitgeist of the early 2000s, and it has gradually gone." The housing sector appears to be bouncing along a bottom.

It's going to be rocky for a while," says Gregory Miller, an economist at Suntrust Bank in Atlanta, according to Reuters.

Housing prices will drop by a further 20 percent as the downturn gripping the United States deepens, leading economist Gary Shilling says. Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, Shilling said more and more people are looking to rent as homeownership becomes increasingly rare. “Housing activity remains depressed, with the only life coming from the multifamily component, which is being driven by the zeal for rental apartments as homeownership falls,” he wrote.

“Homeowners are losing their abodes to foreclosures; many can’t meet stringent mortgage lending standards; some worry about homeownership responsibilities in the face of job uncertainty; and many people have no desire to buy an asset that continues to fall in price.

“I am looking for a further 20 percent slide in housing prices.”

As my dedicated blog readers know, you don’t come here for sugar-coated real estate stories. I always try to dig deeper into what is being reported…piece together related analysis…give you a clear and “no spin” picture of our real estate environment.

Feel free to call me directly at 561.602.1258

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson