The propaganda confliction continues…

 

First…the ACTUAL facts related to the current state of housing…

• JPMorgan to lay off a total of 17,000 mortgage bankers by the end of 2014

• Prices were up 11.7% in the first nine months of 2013, but fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter. And, the latest housing news has been bad.January existing-home sales fell to an 18-month low. And home construction in January recorded the biggest month-over-month drop in seven years.
• “Our early data shows national quarterly price gains are falling at a rapid pace and suggest overall prices could dip into negative territory soon if current conditions continue,”

NEXT: Here is a sample of recent ‘upbeat’ housing related headlines:

• March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. As March comes in this year, the housing sector continues to roar ahead with good news, while other sectors are struggling.
• NAR says the housing market will continue to experience a growth in home sales, provided the job market continues to improve.

As a seller or buyer, it’s difficult to know what to believe. Are prices rising? Is inventory low? Should you sell now or wait? Should you buy now or wait?

Here, in Palm Beach County, it looks like the market peaked in August, 2013 after a bottom in early 2011. An additional signal is the inventory levels have risen about 25% from the beginning of September 2013. Where is our local market headed this year? I think I know what the indicators are and where they are pointing.

My business has been built upon giving highly personalized advice based upon my client specific needs and goals. No one answer is right for all sellers or all buyers. And you can’t rely on the media to give you all of the ‘unbiased’ data and analysis required for you to make an educated decision.

If you are thinking about making a move, selling or buying, we should see what is the best thing for you to do, now. My direct line is 561.602.1258

Thanks for reading….Steve Jackson

What’s in store for 2014?

Sorry to start out 2014 with a bad-news post…but writing about all sides of the real estate market is how I roll!

On December 31, 2013, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reduced the loan limits for its single-family insurance program in 652 counties, while increasing them in 89 counties. The changes result from the expiration of provisions of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008.

In Palm Beach County, the FHA loan limit for 2013 was $423,750…which meant that a buyer could obtain an FHA insured loan for $423,750. Typically, buyers choose the FHA loan route for 2 reasons: 1) they have little to no down payment, or, 2) their credit score would not enable them to obtain convention financing.

With an FHA loan, a buyer could purchase a home with as little as 3.5% down. On the aforementioned 2013 limit, that would have been a home sales price of about $439,000.

But starting now, the maximum loan amount for an FHA buyer is only $345,000! A $94,000 reduction…almost 20%! This new loan limit will translate into a new maximum purchase price of about $358,000.

Lets look at what effect these new limits would have had if we overlay the 2014 limits on to 2103 loans.

In 2013, there were 2301 FHA home sales (about 5% of the total sales) reported in MLS statistics. Of those 2301, 127 of them fell above the 2014 limits. This doesn’t necessarily mean that those 127 sales would not have happened in 2014 limits were in place, but in my 15+ years of experience I have found that the great majority of FHA buyers do not have much money for the down payment and that is why they pay the higher fees and higher interest rates associated with FHA as FHA is about the only game in town for this type of buyer.

So lets assume that 20% of those FHA buyers could have financed the loan another way…that leaves 100 sales between $357,000 and $439,000 that would not have been possible (or will not be possible this year). No matter how you interpret it, losing 5% of your prospective buyer pool is not good for home sellers in 2014.

Another interesting and potentially impactful statistic: in 2013 there were 767 all cash sales in the $357k-$439k range. This equates to 43% being cash sales. The all cash sale market is expected to contract again this year as investors/hedge funds continue to scale back on purchases as prices have risen 25% or more since the bottom in mid 2011.

All-in-all, I foresee a tightening of the real estate market going forward this year. I am of the opinion that sales prices will be flat-to-negative. But on the flip side…for the (non FHA) buyer, buying sooner rather than waiting will be advice I will be comfortable giving seeing as how interest rates are expected to continue climbing (with the next ‘taper’ on the horizon) and as underwriting rules are going to be getting tougher.

If you’d like to discuss your options as a seller or buyer in this market give me a call at 561.602.1258

Thanks for reading, Steve Jackson

And come to visit us in our new office (We are now a REMAX franchise). we’re located on the SW corner of Hypoluxo and Jog in the Charleston Square Plaza. 6582 Hypoluxo Rd., Lake Worth 33467

Janet Yellen, The Nation’s New Chief Slumlord

Below is a blog post from Charles Hugh Smith’s blog: OfTwoMinds.com

I couldn’t comment or paraphrase anything in his post that would be an improvement or would add any clarity…so the verbatim post is below. You should add his blog to your daily reading list.

Janet Yellen's role as the nation's slumlord is masked by her apparent distance from the Fed's money spigot and the resulting institutional ownership of the nation's rental housing stock.

Please welcome the nation's new chief slumlord, Janet Yellen. The previous top slumlord, Ben Bernanke, has retired from the position of Chief Slumlord (i.e. chair of the Federal Reserve) to the accolades of those who benefited from his extraordinary transfer of wealth from the many to the few.
Why is the chairperson of the Fed the nation's top slumlord? Allow me to explain.We only need to understand two facts to understand the Fed's role as Slumlord.
1. Rental housing has long been a decentralized, locally owned industry. Over 90% of rental properties under 50 units have historically been owned by individuals or couples: the nation's landlords have historically been Mom and Pop, middle-class folks who saved capital and used those savings to buy a single-family home or small apartment building (duplex, triplex, four-plex) as an investment that they own and manage.
Very few amass a huge portfolio of properties, as few have the income or assets (i.e. the collateral) to leverage the purchase of dozens of rental properties.
Buildings up to four units qualify for conventional mortgages; small rental properties are not considered commercial properties like strip malls or large apartment complexes.
This diverse, local ownership provided a wide spectrum of residential rentals. The wider the variety of rentals and owners, the greater the diversity of prices, locales and requirements. This is the essence of free enterprise: sellers (landlords) and buyers (renters) agree to price and conditions in a dynamic, open and adaptive marketplace.
2. No Mom and Pop real estate investor can compete with financial institutions who can borrow unlimited sums of money from the Federal Reserve at near-zero rates of interest.

Let's start by asking what happens to the price of real estate when mortgages fall from 8% interest to 4%: prices basically double, because buyers can "afford" to pay more at low rates of interest.
When conventional mortgage rates are 8%, a rental that costs $200,000 requires a 30% down payment in cash (because the buyers are not owner-occupants) or $60,000. The simple interest on a $140,000 mortgage is about $11,200 annually. (Let's use simple annual interest for simplicity's sake.)
At 4%, the price can double to $400,000, with a 30% down of $120,000 and a mortgage of $280,000, and the mortgage accrues the same $11,200 in annual interest.
Declining interest rates push real estate prices higher.

At first glance, this doubling in price doesn't seem to affect the cost of ownership. But that is deceptive; consider how many households can scrape up $120,000 in cash compared to the number who can scrape up $60,000. The higher the price, the bigger the down payment required. The higher the down payment, the fewer the number of households who can accumulate that much cash.
To households that live paycheck-to-paycheck, both sums are out of reach. But a significant number of middle class households could accumulate $60,000: such a sum could come from a family house that was sold and divided amongst the offspring, for example, or a Solo 401K that allows the retirement fund to own real estate, or from saving $5,000 a year for 12 years.
The Federal Reserve's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was designed to push real estate prices higher. The Fed's public justification was "the wealth effect": the idea was that as the family home increased in value, homeowners would begin to borrow and spend more money due to their increased home equity.
The second Fed goal was to increase home sales by lowering mortgage rates, theoretically enabling more marginal buyers to buy a home. But since prices rise as mortgage rates drop, this goal is mooted unless marginal buyers are also given a free ride on down payments and qualifying income, i.e. offered near-zero down payments and no-document mortgage qualification processes.
But zero interest rates and unlimited liquidity don't just push real estate prices higher--they give institutions with access to the Fed's nearly-free money an unbeatable advantage over Mom and Pop real estate investors.

Imagine being able to borrow $400,000 at 1% with zero collateral. You can now buy the rental property for cash, and pay only $4,000 in simple annual interest. And you didn't have to put up a dollar of actual collateral to buy the property.
Consider the huge advantages you now have over the competing Mom and Pop bidders. Sellers typically prefer cash offers, so your cash offer (of Fed money) is more attractive than Mom and Pop's loan-based bid.
If the price jumps to $500,000, Mom and Pop are blown out of the water: they don't have the additional $30,000 cash required as collateral.
Thanks to the Fed, you don't need any collateral. You can borrow $500,000 as easily as $400,000, and the increase in annual interest is trivial: a mere $1,000.
Now consider the operating costs: you have a $7,000 annual advantage because you have access to the Fed's nearly-free money. Mom and Pop have to pay $11,200 in simple annual interest, while you pay only $4,000. A property that is break-even to Mom and Pop reaps you a $7,000 annual profit, just because you can borrow money from the Fed for next to nothing.
Now multiply the $400,000 and the $7,000 by 1,000. Now you can buy $400,000,000 of rental properties and skim $7,000,000 in annual profits, just from the advantage of having access to the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) nearly-free money.
Any advantages you can accrue from economies of scale from owning tens of thousands of rental properties are also yours to keep, courtesy of the Fed.
Now you understand why Janet Yellen is the nation's new top slumlord. Her policies of unlimited liquidity, QE and zero interest rates directly enable financial Elites to beat out Mom and Pop rental housing investors and buy tens of thousands of rental properties at will.
Access to free money and near-zero interest rates gives institutional buyers a built-in advantage over Mom and Pop rental property owners: no collateral and free profits from super-low rates available to those closest to the Fed's QE money spigot.
Institutional ownership turns the rental housing stock into a Fed-enabled financial monoculture. Individual Mom and Pop owners may not require a credit check, or they might not raise the rents very often; the odds that you will be treated as a human being are higher because the scale of the operation is small and local.
To Fed-enabled Institutional landlords, you are an income stream to be skimmed.You will be processed and managed remotely, and variations are not allowed, as they mess up the profit machine.
Fed-enabled Institutional landlords may or may not hire competent, responsive managerial firms to manage their thousands of properties: from the point of view of Fed-enabled Institutional landlords, the lower the costs, the larger the profits. One way to lower costs is to not respond to tenant complaints or requests for service. Another is to hire the lowest-cost (and likely understaffed) management firm.
Janet Yellen's role as the nation's slumlord is masked by her apparent distance from the Fed's money spigot and the resulting institutional ownership of the nation's rental housing stock. But guess what, Chairperson Yellen: we're not fooled. Your phony facade of "progressivism" doesn't mask your real role as the nation's top slumlord.

Happy Holidays to all of my loyal blog readers!

It’s a Wonderful Life

This isn’t real estate related…but I thought it may come in handy to my loyal blog readers.

I ran across a blog that has a listing for ALL of the holiday TV shows…date/time/channel!

The list starts with shows as of tomorrow (11/20) and runs through Christmas day. It’s an awesome list…click on the image below and go print your list so you don’t miss seeing (or DVR’ing) any of your holiday favorites.

 

Thanks for reading…and be on the lookout for a big announcement coming in the next few weeks!

Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

The canary in the coal mine?

Back in the early days of the mid 2000’s real estate bust…Las Vegas was the first to show signs of cracking. Now, is Vegas trying to tip us off again?

Read the excerpts from todays WSJ story below and see what you think. Personally, for the past 60 days I have been telling my clients that I feel (and see) a softening in demand and growth in listing inventory. Although we still seem to be short on properly priced inventory in certain price ranges, I can feel the tide shifting.

Also, I am of the opinion that rents will be softening up soon as there are hundreds of new rental units coming close to completion. And new construction ‘for sale’ homes are coming our of the ground everywhere…just like in 2005. Close to me, Osprey Oaks had the timing about right, but I think that DR Horton is going to be late to the party with their 2 developments on Hypoluxo and the one on Haverhill north of Lantana. Then there is Capistara just around the corner on Military (Lennar I think?) and also on Lawrence just south of Hypoluxo. I think we’ll be seeing LOTS of builder incentives in 2014 in an effort to maintain the listed pricing…just like the builders tried to do in 05/06/07.

Las Vegas: The share of homes that sold in cash last month stood at 47.2%, down from 54.8% in August and one year ago, and down from a high of 59.5% in February, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. Many cash buyers tend to be investors.

Home sales were down 1.2% from a year earlier, even though there were more homes for buyers to choose from. The number of single-family homes listed for sale, at 14,659, stood 12.6% below last year’s levels, but the inventory of “non-contingent” listings—homes that don’t have any offers and aren’t under contract—was 60.5% above year-earlier levels. The median sales price in September fell for the first time in 19 months.

In Las Vegas, buyers earlier this year found themselves regularly losing out to investors amid tight supplies of homes for sale. Now, “the market is softening tremendously,” said Bryan Lebo, a local real-estate agent. “Buyers are becoming a lot pickier. They’re more patient.”

In some neighborhoods, he says, homes are now selling for 10% less than they were just a few months earlier, and builders are beginning to offer generous incentives, such as home upgrades to buyers and commissions to real-estate agents, in order to stay competitive.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

Show Me The Money!!

IMPORTANT NEWS FOR ANY HOMEOWNER WHO OWES MORE ON THEIR MORTGAGE THAN THEIR HOME IS WORTH!!

PLEASE FORWARD THIS POST TO YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY…

TALLAHASSEE—During a press conference on Friday, September 20, Florida Housing Finance Corporation (Florida Housing) announced that next week, Florida homeowners who have remained current on their mortgages may apply for federal assistance from the Florida Hardest-Hit Fund Principal Reduction (HHF-PR) Program. The online application, www.PrincipalReductionFLHHF.org, will open at 9:00 a.m. (Eastern) on Wednesday, September 25, and will be available in all 67 counties. ON A FIRST COME-FIRST SERVED BASIS

“This morning, Florida Housing’s Board of Directors approved $350 million in federal Hardest-Hit funds allocated to our state to be used specifically for a principal reduction program,” said Steve Auger, executive director of Florida Housing. “While our state’s housing market continues to recover, many Florida homeowners have remained current on their mortgage payments in spite of their homes being substantially underwater. For those who qualify, this new program can help to reduce their principal balance, which can result in a lower monthly payment and put more money in their pockets.”

Initially, only 25,000 completed and submitted applications will be accepted for eligibility determination, via the website only. When that number has been reached, the ability to start a new application will be disabled so that staff can begin processing the completed applications. However, if additional funding is available for the program after this initial launch, Florida Housing will notify the public prior to re-opening the application process.

The Florida HHF-PR program is designed to provide up to $50,000 to eligible homeowners who owe at least 125% more on their home than its current market value—commonly known as having a home that is “underwater.” Funds will be applied to reduce the principal balance of the first mortgage to reduce the loan-to-value (LTV) of the first mortgage to no less than 100%. The mortgage can then be recast (re-amortized) or refinanced to produce a lower monthly mortgage payment.

The minimum qualifications a homeowner must meet to be considered for participation in the Florida HHF-PR program are as follows:

· Must be a Florida resident and a legal US resident/legal alien, and occupy the property as the primary residence;

· Must be current on the monthly mortgage payment—first mortgage payment cannot have been 60 or more days late within the past 24 months;

· The first mortgage must have originated prior to January 1, 2010;

· The unpaid principal balance for the first mortgage cannot exceed $350,000;

· The loan-to-value for the first mortgage must be greater than 125%—in other words, home must be more than 125% “underwater”; and

· The total household income, including all persons age 18 years and older who live in the home, must be less than 140% of the area median income.

Principal reduction program funds will be in the form of a 0% percent, deferred-payment loan that will be subordinate to current mortgages on the home. The loan can be forgiven over a five-year period, at a rate of 20% each year. For conventional mortgages, once HHF-PR funds are applied to the principal, the mortgage will be recast (the terms of the loans will remain the same, but the loan will be re-amortized).

If the borrower has a FHA, VA or USDA-RD mortgage, the mortgage will need to be refinanced within 120 days after closing on HHF principal reduction funds in order to receive the pro rata forgiveness.

If a refinance is not completed within the specified time, the principal reduction loan will be 100% forgiven after a full five years of the borrower remaining in the home.

Homeowners in every Florida county may apply for the Florida HHF-PR program by using the official website: www.PrincipalReductionFLHHF.org. The site contains all the information users will need to begin the application process, including a program fact sheet and answers to frequently asked questions. Additionally, the Florida HHF Toll-free Information Line [1-(877)-863-5244] will be open on Saturday, September 21, and Sunday, September 22, from 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. to answer any questions callers may have about the program.

Application for the Florida HHF-PR program is FREE-OF-CHARGE, and applicants will not be asked to pay for any eligibility determination services in conjunction with applying for the program.

To My Blog Readers: If you apply for this program please follow up with me and let me know what happens/how it goes. Thanks

Steve Jackson…561.602.1258

 

Lets keep this housing party going!

There was a time when those who defaulted on their debt, especially mortgages, had to wait 3-5 years before they became eligible for any form of new credit, let alone a brand new mortgage. That, however, was in the Old Normal. In the New one things are different: so different, that for anyone who filed a bankruptcy on or before July 2012, we have good news for you - the FHA (subject to an explanation and several almost painless conditions) will be happy to provide you with a brand new mortgage.

From the recent FHA Mortgagee Letter 2013-26:

FHA is continuing its commitment to fully evaluate borrowers who have experienced periods of financial difficulty due to extenuating circumstances.

As a result of the recent recession many borrowers who experienced unemployment or other severe reductions in income, were unable to make their monthly mortgage payments, and ultimately lost their homes to a pre-foreclosure sale, deed-in-lieu, or foreclosure. Some borrowers were forced to file for bankruptcy to discharge or restructure their debts. Because of these recent recession-related periods of financial difficulty, borrowers’ credit has been negatively affected. FHA recognizes the hardships faced by these borrowers, and realizes that their credit histories may not fully reflect their true ability or propensity to repay a mortgage.

To that end, FHA is allowing for the consideration of borrowers who have experienced an Economic Event and can document that:

• certain credit impairments were the result of a Loss of Employment or a significant loss of Household Income beyond the borrower’s control;
• the borrower has demonstrated full recovery from the event; and,
• the borrower has completed housing counseling.

Housing counseling is an important resource for both first-time home buyers and repeat home owners. Housing counseling enables borrowers to better understand their loan options and obligations, and assists borrowers in the creation and assessment of their household budget, accessing reliable information and resources, avoiding scams, and being better prepared for future financial shocks, among other benefits to the borrower.

Well, we did say almost painless: it is only logical that after filing bankruptcy one should go to housing counseling. Surely that will 'learn' one to buy that 18 bedroom McMansion that the evil banker, gun against head, forced down one's throat.

Either way, once done with the grueling "counseling" sessions, and providing evidence one didn't blow it all in Vegas, the FHA makes one eligible for a new mortgage even with a prior recent bankruptcy, and not just any but Chapter 7 as well as 13, as follows:

D. Economic Event-Related Chapter 7 Bankruptcy

The lender must verify and document that:

• a minimum of twelve (12) months have elapsed since the date of discharge of the bankruptcy; and
• the bankruptcy was the result of the Economic Event.

E. Economic Event-Related Chapter 13 Bankruptcy

The lender must verify and document that:

• the Chapter 13 Bankruptcy was discharged prior to loan application and all required bankruptcy payments were made on-time, or a minimum of twelve (12) months of the pay-out period under the bankruptcy has elapsed and all required bankruptcy payments were made on time; and
• the bankruptcy was the result of the Economic Event.

But what if, gasp, the existing bankruptcy has not yet been discharged? Don't worry: the FHA's got you covered even then:

If the Chapter 13 Bankruptcy was not discharged prior to loan application, the lender must also verify and document that the borrower has received written permission from the Bankruptcy Court to enter into the subject mortgage transaction.

And so on. There are other conditions (the full FHA Mortgagee Letter can be found here) but if the only gate for a bankruptcy as a restraining factor is for 12 months to have gone by, one can imagine just how "strict" the other conditions have to be.

So…party on!

Thanks for reading…as always.

Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

Does it pay to sell?

Is the “smart money” starting to bail on real estate?

Here are 2 recent headlines relating to the hedge fund investing strategy that has gained popularity in the past few years:

 

• Is private equity and Wall Street planning their exit from the rental business- Lower yields, IPOs, and packaging deals to sell: The whispers about private equity exiting the rental market are now out in the open.  A few reports are highlighting that some private equity investors are testing the waters for an exit via IPOs.

• Housing Bubble II: Euphoria And Other Shenanigans: Private-equity funds have poured tens of billions into gobbling up vacant single-family homes in specific markets. And now some of them are planning IPOs as a way of dumping this stuff into funds that unsuspecting worker bees hold in their 401(k)s. It’s called an exit, and they have to do it before it blows up in their faces.

Personally, I just last week saw another agents deal that Blackstone (a very large hedge fund) tried to renegotiate at the last minute…then bailed out on. They had a 3 week to closing date contract on a single family home in Deerfield at $333k and on the final day of their 10 day due diligence period they asked the seller to reduce the price to $300k. Even though the seller had already contracted to purchase another home and packed most of their belongings they counter offered Blackstone at $325k..and Blackstone walked. Was this their normal M.O or are they getting a bit skittish about the rapidly rising home prices in South Florida? Time will tell I guess.

In the past few years institutional investors rushed to buy homes with the philosophy of buy cheap, renovate, and rent. But they might be in for a surprise. According to real estate research firm Trulia Inc., since 2005, there have been almost four million single-family homes added to the rental market. That supply has met the demand created during the crisis in the housing market. (Source: Trulia Inc., April 4, 2013.). Also those numbers do not include the huge rush into the building of multi-family/apartment rentals. With just a simple 15 minute drive around our area you can see hundreds and hundreds of new rental units being built…Cheap corporate money+lots of bad credit/unstable job families=A generation of renters. But the returns projected by these entities, are, in my opinion, much too high.

As a result, the rental rates that institutional investors were banking on (they were working off projections of up to 5% annual rental rate increases) are actually compressing. Recent reports have shown that rental rates are down 1.2% on average in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties year over year.

Interest rates have recently spiked to over 4%, which is still historically low, but every tic higher changes the yield for a leveraged investor and reduces the amount any that any buyers who needs a mortgage can qualify for.

Be careful out there.

 

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson, 561.602.1258

For Memorial Day…The Pledge of Allegiance

Thank You to all of the veterans who have served, sacrificed and protected our freedom…

Don’t “sell your listing” when trying to sell your home

All recent indicators point to it being a strong sellers market…super low inventory, historically low interest rates, lot’s of cash on the sidelines too. It is the strongest sellers market I have seen since 2005.

But…be careful when pricing your home for sale lest you may miss this selling opportunity. It is always tempting to hire the agent that tells you the highest price. Unscrupulous agents are well aware of this typical seller tendency and often try to take advantage of it as follows:

Case in point: Earlier this year I met with a prospective seller to interview for the job of assisting them with the sale of their home. All went well EXCEPT for the portion of our meeting where we discussed the most likely selling price range. These sellers were of the opinion that their home would sell for about 20% more than my assessment. Shortly thereafter, their home showed up on the market with another well-known local franchise agent/team at the price they told me they thought it was worth. Now, not to be an “I told you so”…but after 3 price reductions and 5 months on the market, their home sold $8,000 below where I recommended it be priced initially. Buyers quickly become very astute in determining a homes value…there is sooo much information readily available that you’re not going to fool anyone into overpaying. And if you do,  then you have to convince the buyers appraiser of the higher value too!

What is your home really worth?

In a way, that's a trick question. What your home is worth to you, considering the new paint and the children's park across the street, could be very different from what the home is worth to a couple who doesn’t like your taste in color schemes and whose kids are grown. So before you put a price tag on your home, read this:

CMA (comparative/competitive market analysis) : an objective point of view

Your home's "fair market value" is the price a buyer agrees to pay and you agree to accept. All homes ultimately sell at this price.

Instead of using subjective measures, the housing market uses a "Comparative Market Analysis" or CMA. It's the most important factor in determining what your home's fair market value is. A CMA compares your home to comparable homes, or "comps," in your neighborhood that are presently on the market, currently under contract and that have sold recently. Adjustments are made to account for differences in location, size, condition, upgrades, etc...

For $300 or so you can also pay for a professional appraisal of your home to get a state certified appraisers opinion of your home's fair market value.

When Your Realtor Suggests a High Selling Price, Beware!

Meeting With Realtors

· You’ve decided to sell your home and have a fairly good idea of what you think it is worth. Being a sensible home seller, you schedule appointments with a few local agents who’ve been mailing you cards. Each Realtor comes prepared with a "Competitive Market Analysis" and they each recommend a price.

· One of the Realtors has come up with a price that is lower than you expected and although they back up their recommendations with recent sales and current market data, you remain convinced your house is worth more.

· When you interview the next agent, they are much more in line with your own hoped-for value, or maybe even higher. Suddenly, you are a happy and excited home seller, already counting the money.

A Dangerous Sales Practice Called "Buying a Listing"

· If you’re like many people who don’t buy or sell a lot of homes, you pick Realtor number two. This is an agent who seems willing to listen to your input and work with you. This is an agent that cares about putting the most money in your pocket. This is an agent that really sees the value in your home.

· The truth is that you may have just met an agent engaging in a questionable and all too common sales practice called "buying a listing."  He "bought" the listing by suggesting you might be able to get a higher sales price than the other agent recommended. Most likely, he is quite doubtful that your home will actually sell at that price. The intention from the beginning is to eventually talk you into lowering the price to where he knows it should be. (Or it could be that the agent is NOT being underhanded but that they are just new/inexperienced or plainly not very good).

Why do some agents "buy" listings this way? There are 3 reasons:

· The first one being that the agent realizes that you have to sell and they will eventually get you to reduce your asking price to where it should have been initially, even though it may be $10,000, $20,000, $50,000 or even $100,000 less then they told you they could get you on the day you signed up!

· The second one is so that they can do a neighborhood mailing and in that way get another listing “priced correctly” that they believe they have a chance of selling.

· The third reason is that they hope to get a buyer to call off of your sign or ad and that buyer will purchase some other (properly priced) house and the agent eventually gets a paycheck that way.

A seller who choose an agent based on which estimate is highest is the ultimate loser.

Selecting an agent by essentially “auctioning” your listing is a sure way to waste your time and miss out on a real buyer for your home.

Conclusion: Choose your agent based on honesty, reputation, ethics, experience, competence and marketing, and don't chase after those tossing around pie-in-the-sky numbers.

As always, thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson: 561.602.1258

Interesting Perspective

A guy whose videos I get a few times a week recently did a short video with an interesting perspective on the current market conditions.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

Making Moving Easier for Children

From a great parenting blog, Little Hearts/Gentle Parenting, that I read whenever I can, comes this post on kids and moving

Transitions are hard on everyone, and when the whole family is affected such as in a big move to a new home, parents often get so caught up in the logistics of the move and their own stresses that helping their children cope with the move can get lost in the chaos. Here are a few things you can do to ease the transition for your little people without adding more stress to yourself:

1. With small children, it can be tempting to build up the move beforehand to make it seem like an exciting adventure, but over excitement can be just as stressful and overwhelming to small children (and big ones!) as anxiety can be. Instead, try to keep things as low-key as possible. Wait until it’s close to time to actually start packing before discussing the move with your little one, and then use simple, age-appropriate language to tell them that you are all moving together (emphasize together so there’s no misunderstanding!) to a new house.
2. Show them pictures of the new house, the new yard, their new room, the kitchen, bathroom, living room, etc. Ask them where they’d like to put their bed and draw it on the picture with a marker. Do the same with their toy box, toothbrush, high chair, sandbox, and anything they ask about to reassure them that their things are coming along on the move and to begin to familiarize them with their new space. Give them a marker and another set of pictures of the new house to draw on so they can begin to make it their own.
3. Put boxes in their room a few days before the move and let them begin to pack their own things in their own time. You can go back and repack the boxes when they’re asleep or playing elsewhere if needed. Giving them some control over the move will help tremendously with their feelings of being taken away from their familiar home.
4. Keep a few familiar toys out for the actual move to help your little one see that their things are coming with them. If possible, let them help with loading the boxes from their room onto the truck, too. Knowing that their toys and clothes and bed are coming with them on the move is very comforting.
5. Pack a travel bag with new toys and activities and healthy, familiar snacks for moving day. The novelty of the new toys will help them to travel more happily, and the familiar snacks will keep their tummies settled and hunger at bay making for a calmer trip for all.
6. At the new house, unpack your little one’s things first if at all possible so that they can see for themselves that they made the trip and can begin settling in right away. Take the time to play with them, too. It’s amazing how a few minutes of playing together can settle a small child when they’re stressed!
7. Don’t be surprised if your little one is clingy and whiney for a few days after the move. After unpacking their things, don’t try to rush to unpack everything else all at once. Give your child all of the time and attention they need to help ease the transition for them.
8. Nighttime can be the hardest for children in a new home, so be prepared for lots of cuddling and possibly a night visitor in your bed for a while. Being there for your little one at night is as important as being there for them in the day!
9. Involve them in unpacking and putting away everything from kitchen utensils to books to linens to clothes. Children are very tactile, and actually touching all of the places and putting familiar things from their old home away in the new home can help them to begin to feel at home themselves.
10. Stick to familiar routines such as bedtime, naptime, etc. But don’t be rigid about schedules. Your little one has been through a huge change and needs extra attention and understanding from their source of comfort and security…you!
11. Introduce new things like playgroups, pediatricians, babysitters, churches, etc. slowly, spread out over as long a period of time as possible. The move itself is overwhelming enough in its newness without adding in a ton of other unfamiliar things right away.
12. Find some things near your new home that are familiar to your little one from your previous home such as a chain grocery store, toy store, restaurant, etc. Seeing and visiting familiar places is vastly reassuring for small children because they can see for themselves that you can still buy them food and other necessities even though you’ve moved.

Giving your child the reassurance that some things will remain the same even when so many things have changed helps to stabilize and assure them that their needs will still be met and life will still go on in many of the same patterns and routines they are used to. Remaining calm and available for your little one, even in the midst of your own stresses over the move, is key. But take care of yourself, too. Change is hard on everyone, so cut yourself some slack and don’t try to do everything at once. Remember, slow and steady wins the race!

 

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson…561.602.1258

Lantana investor special

I am sure that all of you investors know how difficult it is to find (and successfully get under contract) decent single family properties in the ‘under $150,000’ market.

I now have access to a package of 10 single family homes in east Lantana…fully leased…NO HOA…owner stated rental income of $106,200/yr..

They are not, and will not be listed on the MLS and are sold as 1 complete package.

The price is $1,050,000

Call me quickly at 561.602.1258 or email me at Investors@thejacksonteam.com (please include your proof of funds with your email).

Steve Jackson

How Santa refuels his sleigh

Z.I.R.P. and mortgage rates

Below is an excerpt from a recent article by Barry Habib of MBS Highway

Quite possibly you have heard of the Federal Reserves ZIRP or Zero Interest Rate Policy…below is a good explanation of how it works and the tangential effect on mortgage rates.

Imagine that you are a Money Manager, managing a $100 Million Dollar portfolio. You can borrow at very low rates that are close to the Fed Funds Rate. Call it a 0 .5% cost to borrow. You can buy mortgage bonds that pay 3% . It looks like a nice profit spread of 2 .5% . But the real magic happens when you use leverage. You can buy those bonds with only 10% cash . So you can take your $100 Million and buy $1 Billion worth of bonds, by borrowing the other $900 Million at a cost of only 0 .5% . The 2 .5% profit on the $1Billion is equal to a whopping 25% on your $100 Million dollar portfolio...making you a great money manager, and a heck of a lot of fees. This is called "The Carry Trade". But one sure way to lose money on this trade is to have your borrowing cost rise. So, as the data begins to approach the Fed's targets, managers will be less willing to buy mortgage bonds and begin to unwind their holdings. This selling of mortgage bonds will cause mortgage rates to rise, and perhaps at a surprising pace. We will need to be on guard about this in the months ahead.

The above is important to buyers and sellers alike…for buyers, it is quite obvious how interest rates have an effect on the purchase of a home. an increase in rates from 4% to 5% has the following effect on a $250,000 loan.

Principal and interest payment of $250,000 at 4% is $1,194/mon

Principal and interest payment on $250,000 at 5% is $1,342/mon…that is a 12% increase in payment and can have a significant effect on the size of the loan you can qualify for.

If the rates go to 6% you would be at almost $1,500/mon

So, if you are a buyer, you have try to predict the future of interest rates and home prices (we’re here to help you with that!). Should you buy now at the lowest rates in history, or gamble that home prices will fall if interest rates rise? Can you chart out the ‘rates vs. price’ so you are aware of the optimum rate/price relationship?

And, as a seller, are you up for the gamble? Are you on the side of the “we’ve hit bottom” and it’s all up from here crowd or, after reading the above, do you think that now may be an opportune time to “get while the getting is good”?

 

We are not your typical real estate agents. We’ll help you decipher all of the ‘noise’ relating to the housing market and what decision is in YOUR best interests. You won’t get ‘objection handling techniques’, you won’t get ‘memorized dialogs’…in short, you won’t get a salesman that tries to influence and steer you in one direction or another. You’ll get honest advice tailored to your specific needs, goals and situation.

Call me directly at 561.602.1258 if you’d like to discuss anything real estate related.

And, as always, thanks for reading

Is housing going to get pushed over the cliff too?

There’s been non-stop chatter about the “fiscal cliff” lately. So I thought that I should discuss the housing component of the ‘fall from the cliff’.

The two major issues that will have an effect on housing: capping the amount of mortgage interest some can deduct from their taxable income, and eliminating the tax exemption on debt forgiven when a bank agrees to forgive the debt on the loss they take on a home being sold for less than the mortgage amount, either through a short sale or foreclosure sale.

Also, a tax deduction on mortgage insurance is set to expire at the end of this year. Mortgage insurance is generally required of borrowers who make down payments of less than 20%, so eliminating the insurance deduction could raise costs for millions.

One more issue, not directly related to “the cliff” but on the same timeline, is the Federal Reserves “Operation Twist”, whereby the Fed (kind of) ‘trades’ short term securities for long term ones in an effort to keep long term rates, such as mortgage rates, extremely low.  If this comes to an end, especially in concert with the other fiscal cliff possibilities, it could be a disastrous combo for the tenuous housing recovery.

The National Association of Realtor (NAR) has made a clear call for help to sustain the housing market's progress in their Call for Action: Do No Harm to Housing. As stated on their website, "NAR's position is that the mortgage interest deduction is vital to the stability of the American housing market and economy and we will remain vigilant in opposing any future plan that modifies or excludes the deductibility of mortgage interest". A few days ago Speaker of the House John A. Boehner offered a potential path to compromise in year-end budget negotiation, as NAR spoke out that struggling homeowners need mortgage debt relief.

If the mortgage interest deduction is not eliminated, but scaled back to coincide with the current conforming loan limits for high-cost areas, (so rather than a million-dollar maximum limit, it might be scaled back to $625,000, for example, and interest on a mortgage higher than that figure would no longer be deductible), it may not have a major impact on the majority of housing markets.

But, the failure to renew the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act could have a disastrous impact on short sales, and subsequently an increase in foreclosed homes, which always leads to reduced home values. Michelle J. Adams, an attorney in Rockville, Md., with a large practice assisting distressed borrowers, said that "for some homeowners the amount forgiven is a couple of hundred thousand dollars." If Congress lets the provision lapse, "the amount (owed in taxes) will be so prohibitive that many owners will walk away" - or file for bankruptcy, she said. Under the tax code, most forms of forgiven debt are treated as ordinary income – (with the temporary exception granted by Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act on principal residences) - unless the borrower is insolvent.

Concerned for the potential impact on economic recovery, Zillow pointed to the fiscal cliff in late November, saying, “The housing market has found real momentum of its own, but is not immune from shocks to the broader economy,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. ”If negotiations centered on resolving the fiscal cliff don’t inspire confidence in investors and consumers alike, recent home value gains – and, as a result, falling negative equity rates – could stall.”

Like I have been advising my seller clients for months…I believe that the current strong housing indicators are temporary…and if you are on the market or thinking about selling, I suggest you get it done soon!

If you’d like to discuss your situation with me, call me directly at 561.602.1258

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all !

Recent email I received:

"This guy at work says that Bank of America is paying homeowners to do a short sale through some new program called an HIN Incentive. I Googled HIN Incentive and couldn't really find any information on this program. Do you know what it is?

Answer: There are so many short sale programs similar to the HIN Incentive but none quite like it. It's a program initiated by Bank of America for certain preapproved short sales and works best if you don't have more than 1 loan on your home. Second lien holders often object to the cash payments.

The HIN Incentive is an enhanced cash payment incentive, paid directly to the seller at the time of closing if certain conditions are met.

How Does the HIN Incentive Work?

Let's say you have a first mortgage with Bank of America at $300,000, and your property today has fallen in value to $180,000. The HIN incentive is based on the sales price of the property, says Bank of America. The bank does not share its calculation formula.

One such seller qualified to receive almost $6,700. The enhanced relocation assistance or the HIN incentive was almost $4,200. The seller received her check at closing. It is subject to a 1099 for the existing tax year, which means the following year she will pay taxes on that payment because it is considered income for tax purposes. Still, free is free.

How Do you Apply for the HIN Incentive?

You can call Bank of America to see if you qualify for the HIN Incentive. However, you will receive a customer service representative. I hate to say this but the odds are about 50 / 50 that a person who answers the phone will have answers to your questions.

You can also ask us to open a file in Equator for you. That is the easiest and most pain-free way to begin the process. You will need to sign a third-party authorization. Once the file is opened in Equator, we will receive email confirmation. That email will be followed by another regarding borrower outreach.

BofA borrower Outreach means it is time for you to call the customer service number and discuss your foreclosure alternative options with Bank of America. One of those options is the non-government sponsored enterprise type of HAFA short sale program. Another is a GSE HAFA such as a Fannie Mae HAFA or a Freddie Mac HAFA. The qualifications for these programs vary.

Unlike the HAFA short sale, there is generally not much paperwork required for the Cooperative Short Sale program, apart from standard bank documents. By extension, there is little paperwork associated with the HIN incentive.

What Else Do You Need to Know About the HIN Incentive?

It's a fairly straight-forward process. After Bank of America qualifies the homeowner based on select investor guidelines, the bank will order a BPO (poor-mans appraisal) to establish fair market value. After market value has been established and the suggested selling/listing price has been given to us by the bank, we then list your home as a preapproved short sale. This means both you and the property qualifies for a short sale. Here are some other interesting bits of information about the HIN Incentive:

• Payments vary between $5,000 and $30,000.
• Homeowners can use the money to pay liens or outstanding bills or fund a trip to Las Vegas.
• You cannot submit an offer/contract until you are preapproved for the HIN Incentive.
• The home does not need to be owner-occupied; it can be vacant
• The short sale must close by September 26, 2013.
• VA loans and FHA loans are not eligible for the HIN Incentive.
• If you do not qualify for the HIN Incentive, you might still qualify for the Cooperative Short Sale program or one of the HAFA programs.

If you think that you may be in a position to benefit from a short sale..give me a call today. All calls are strictly confidential.

My direct line is 561.602.1258…Steve Jackson

Palm Beach County housing showing ‘green shoots’?

It’s all over the news…The housing crisis is over! In todays Palm Beach Post is this headline: Florida home prices bottomed earlier than previously thought, according to one study…and the article goes on to state that they just realized that the bottom was in 2009!

The bottom has been reached and it’s all up from here…Green shoots are everywhere!

Not so fast…There’s a good chance those green shoots will get swamped by the coming wave of distressed home sales!

I have been following (and charting…see below) the number of Lis Pendens filed with the Palm Beach County Clerk since 2010.

Here’s another tidbit from a recent Sun Sentinel article: It takes an average of 861 days for a lender to repossess a property in Florida, says RealtyTrac Inc., a California foreclosure listing firm.

Lenders are whole heartedly resuming foreclosures following the “robosigning” scandal in which bank employees admitted using faulty paperwork and fake signatures to take back homes.

Prices have rebounded in South Florida and across the state in recent months. But those gains could easily reverse when the coming wave of foreclosures hits the market.

As we all know by now, bank-owned homes and short sales typically sell for less than a similar home would sell for if not a distressed sale, thereby hurting the values of nearby properties…and specifically creating potential for nightmare scenarios with the  appraisals of non-distress-sale homes.

All the recent news stories are reporting that prices are on the upswing and have benefited from a change in the mix of homes sold with distressed properties – bank-owned homes and short sales -- accounting for only 22% of total sales, down from 31% last August.

Below is a graph of the median home price index charting back to January 2008. You’ll see, even with all of the excitement in the media the past few months, that we’re still below summer of 2009 prices. And all the the bumps in prices…they are ALL the summer buying season.

In Quarter one of 2013, when they are charting median sales prices for Oct-Nov-Dec 2012, what do you think the graph will look like?

So, to wrap up this cheery post…my take on all of the recent reports by the experts. They are wrong, period.

If  there have been over 10,000 foreclosure actions started so far in 2012, and a total of over 22,000 in the past 20 months and it takes, on average, over 800 days from start to finish, it looks like we are clearly in for a very large number of distressed sales…either as short sales or bank-owned sales.

As of today, there are 11,910 properties listed for sale in Palm Beach County in our MLS system…single family/townhomes and condos. Almost exactly TWICE AS MANY properties have had a foreclosure action initiated since 1/11 than are currently for sale!

Just for fun, lets say that 50% of those in foreclosure somehow resolve the foreclosure. That still leaves over 11,000 short sales or bank-owned homes going to hit the market in the not-to-distant future…and that is just the stats if they stop filing foreclosures today! (which is not going to happen)

The short sales may hit the market sooner, unless the owners are trying to stay as long as possible. But there is no doubt that there will be new downward pressure coming.

For about 6 months now I have been counseling my customers and clients that we are in a ‘mini-bubble’ that may last a few months longer. If you have equity…now may be your best chance for a while to sell.

As always, thank for reading…Steve Jackson…561.602.1258

If you have any comments on this post, or would like to suggest a post topic…send me a text or an email.

If we don’t sell it…we’ll buy it!

Once again, I have started to see this being promoted recently by mail, in the Neighborhood News and on the radio.

"If we don't sell your house in___days...WE'LL BUY IT!"

Sounds great...especially in this market. Worth checking out? That's what the agent is hoping you'll think. Get the agents phone to ring...but they'll never discuss the details over the phone..."much to complicated and need to see your home to see if it qualifies"...get the foot in the door. But there is NEVER a free lunch; there is always a cost associated.

But, particularly in this type of market, it would be "good business" if the agent NEVER bought any homes, or if they did, that they were purchased at such a drastic discount that the could quickly ‘flip’ the home and make some money. 

I have gone to several seminars where they promoted this (tactic/gimmick) and the dialog you will hear starts out something like this: " Mr./Mrs. homeowner, a big dilemma when making your move is deciding whether to buy 1st or sell 1st. Either way is risky as you could end up with 2 homes (or no home). Our unique/innovative/etc Guaranteed Sale Program solves this dilemma...you get our personal guarantee that if we don't sell your home in BLANK (30/60/90/120) days, we will buy it at a price acceptable to you. Now, WE take all the risk from you and you can immediately place a confident offer on another home". The Devil? it’s in the details:The hidden details usually follow some or all of these general guidelines:

• Must purchase one of the agents listings...or at least buy a 'full commission' home with them
• Seller must still pay a full commission on the 'guaranteed' sale
• Quite often an 'upfront' fee or guaranteed sale program fee of anywhere from $295 to fees in the thousands
• "Agreed upon" price well below appraisal/market value...could be as low as the 80% range, then subtract commissions, fees, closing costs etc.
• Original list price 5% below  sale prices of comparable homes
• May be a an additional fee involved
• Seller may be required to continually lower the asking price during the guarantee period...for example: 100%  for 1st 30 days, 95% day 30-60, 90% day 60-90, and so on until the “buy-out price is reached.
• Sign the listing agreement first...then the guaranteed purchase details come later
• There may be a maximum allowable program price
• Restrictions on home condition
• Use the language "I'll buy it for 'list' price", but fail to say that the 'list' price is the 80% ENDING list price

Now if they'll come right in and buy it for the price that they agree to list it for...

then that's putting their money where their dog and pony show is!

Think about these few points:

• With as difficult as it is to get a mortgage now, COULD your agent actually perform on their guarantee? And what will happen if they CAN’T perform? Ask to speak with their mortgage lender...do your due diligence as with any other buyer.
• If they don't need a mortgage and have a few million sitting around to buy homes that don't sell in 90 days, why are they a real estate agent?
• Are they "flipping" the purchase option to an investor? Are they going to list the home for the investor once they buy it?
• Can they assign the guaranteed sale price (as in a wholesaler)?

Good, solid, cutting-edge marketing, a detailed understanding of the local and national economic factors affecting home values, subdivision level market knowledge, ability to analyze trends...trust and mutual respect...THIS is what is needed today. Not MORE GIMMICKS!

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

 

9/11/01

 

Palm Beach County Property Tax notices are out…was your home valued too high?

A few weeks ago the Palm Beach County Property Appraiser sent out the estimated property tax notices to every property owner which contained assessed and market values of the property.

This notice is not a tax bill. The Tax Collector’s Office will mail tax bills on Nov. 1. The Notice of Proposed Taxes is intended to give you an idea of what to expect when the taxing authorities work up their budgets for the 2013 fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2012-Sept. 30, 2013).

The value information shows your property’s market value for 2011 and 2012. Market value is based on the most probable sale price a willing buyer would pay in a competitive market. The 2012 tax roll is based on sales transactions that occurred in 2011.

If you believe the market value (and resulting property taxes) of your property is too high you have the right to appeal...BUT YOUR TIME IS RUNNING OUT! September 17th is the appeal deadline.

The procedure for a valuation appeal is as follows:

1. You can all the PB County Property Appraisers office and speak with a deputy appraiser. The main contact # is 561-355-3230, the # listed under Residential Appraisals is 561-355-2883. If still dissatisfied, you can then appeal to the Value Adjustment Board, an independent body consisting of two County Commissioners, one School Board member and two members at large, appointed by the County Commission and School Board.
2. The Value Adjust Board appeal: The VAB is set up to settle disputes between taxpayers and the Property Appraisers office. You can file your petition online HERE…but you only have until SEPTEMBER 17th…so don’t delay! Filing a petition will cost you a non-refundable $15 fee. HERE is what the actual petition form looks like.You can also file in person at the Clerk Governmental Center 1st floor office or any branch location. You can call the VAB at (561) 355-6289.

In hearings before the VAB you may represent yourself, seek assistance from a family member or a friend, or have an attorney or agent represent you.

It is recommended that you have evidence to support your petition. You can review the Florida Department of Revenue Web site for examples of evidence listed in Florida Statute 193. I am of the opinion that recent arms length transaction sales of similar properties can be the best evidence of value a homeowner can have. The county appraiser might compare your property with similar, recently sold properties to determine its market value, then multiply that by a set fraction, known as the assessment ratio. So if a property's market value is determined to be $100,000 and the assessment ratio is 80%, the assessed value for property tax purposes should be $80,000.

The next step is to check for errors in your assessment. Your local assessor's office can provide your property's record card which has information used to assess your property, such as dimensions and number of rooms; you can check that out HERE. Check that the square footage listed is correct for both the house and the land. If you find an outright error -- for example, the card says your home is 2500 sq. feet but in reality it is only 2000 sq. feet -- you may be able to show the assessor your blueprints or floor plan to get a reduction and skip the formal appeal.

Next, investigate the assessed value of similar properties in your neighborhood to see how yours compares. Look at property cards for homes of similar age and square footage with the same number of bedrooms and bathrooms. If you find that your assessed value is considerably higher than that of at least five homes (the more you can document, the better), you may have a solid case for appeal. Try to find comparable properties that are as close as possible to your own -- nearly the same square footage, in the same neighborhood, and with similar grades of construction materials.

Another option is hiring a professional real estate appraiser who will take a thorough look at your property provides the strongest evidence of its worth, but check whether your community allows outside appraisals in an appeal before you get one. If you go this route, find someone with national certification, such as through the Appraisal Institute or the National Association of Independent Fee Appraisers. Several factors contribute to the cost of an appraisal, but expect to pay about $250 to $500.

Also, if you’re friendly with a ‘competent’ real estate agent who is an expert in your area, they can provide you with a great deal of valuable information regarding the value of your home.

Lastly, there may be attorneys or other private companies that assist homeowners in challenging their tax assessment…I , however, have no experience with either and can provide no recommendations. I googled for tax assessment challenge companies and came across this one (no endorsement) And I found this book published by The National Taxpayers Union that may be of some help…(I’ve not read it and it costs $9.95)

There are specific evidence submission requirements plus you must bring all of your evidence to the hearing and be prepared to present it. When sending your evidence to the Property Appraiser, please provide two (2) copies. Do not submit evidence to the VAB clerk.

Here is a link where you can download the 2 page VAB guideline brochure.

Evidence sent before the hearing as part of the pre-hearing evidence exchange with the property appraiser should be sent to:

Property Appraiser
Governmental Center
301 North Olive Avenue
5th Floor
West Palm Beach, FL 33401

Good luck in your appeal!

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

561.602.1258

 

Home prices to drop another 20%?

 

There is a consensus forming that the U.S. housing market may finally be on the rebound. Home prices are up 4-straight months, according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller index and Zillow's U.S. home value index increased for the first time since 2007 in the second quarter.

But Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling is not convinced home prices have turned to the upside for good.

"The fundamental reason is there is a huge excess of inventory out there," he tells The Daily Ticker's Henry Blodget. "Some of it is listed but a lot of it is a so-called shadow inventory."

Shadow inventory refers to homes in foreclosure and waiting to be sold or properties that homeowners have delayed selling, likely to get a better price.

In his latest Insights investment note, Shilling writes "excess housing inventories, the mortal enemy of prices, measure about 2 million over and above normal working levels. That's huge considering that housing completions averaged about 1.5 million in earlier balmy years."

He also cites the backlog of delinquencies and foreclosures that were put on hold during the robo-signing investigation and settlement process.

A CoreLogic report in June showed shadow inventory fell almost 15 percent from 2011 levels to 1.5 million properties. More than half of those 2.8 million homes were "seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO."

"Since peaking at 2.1 million units in January 2010, the shadow inventory has fallen by 28 percent. The decline in the shadow inventory is a positive development because it removes some of the downward pressure on house prices," said CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming. "This is one of the reasons why some markets that were formerly identified as deeply distressed, like Arizona, California and Nevada, are now experiencing price increases."

As Shilling sees it, the banks have three options to get the bad mortgages off their books:

1. Flood them onto the market
2. Institute a mortgage modification plan
3. Try to convert the properties into rentals

He says the second and third options are a lot less likely because mortgage modifications rarely work and rental properties are very difficult to maintain on a large scale, which may detract institutional inventors.

As a result, he believes the more likely scenario could very well end up being option number one, which would have a negative impact on home prices. The latest National Association of Realtors survey shows foreclosed properties tend to sell at a 19 percent discount to the market.

Too many foreclosures flooding the market at the same time could drive down prices of the surrounding homes.

"It would take a 22% house price drop to return to the long-run trend going back to 1890," he writes in his research note. "Since corrections of bubbles often overshoot on the downside, our forecast of a further 20% decline may be conservative."

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Call me on my direct line at: 561.602.1258

Loan modification? Short Sale? Deed-in-lieu?

Underwater? Thinking you should pursue a loan modification?

You may know of someone who tried to modify their mortgage only to end up frustrated because your bank gave you a modification that made sense for them,NOT you. You've even probably heard where the bank actually offered someone a loan modification that actually increased their monthly payment. This typically happens because they add the missed mortgage payments to the backend of the loan, then they try and recast the loan over many more years to try and keep the payment down. But the end result is a mortgage with a higher balance on a home that's probably worth much less then what is owed.

Now, not every loan modification is done this way. In fact, certain mortgage servicers have recently come out with very aggressive loan modification programs that will reduce the principal of the mortgage balance. One of the reasons behind this is the changing of servicing rights; most mortgage holders have probably received a letter at some point telling them that their mortgage was transferred to a new company. Essentially this means that your current mortgage company sold the servicing rights to another company.

Why is the advantageous to you? Because delinquent underwater mortgages have a lesser value than performing mortgages at market value. This means that if the servicer modified your mortgage and you become a paying customer again, you just helped them increase the value of their asset (your mortgage), amazing how that works.

Start by calling your mortgage company and asking them if they have any new mortgage modification programs. And don't be fooled by a company that may want to charge you for this service. They will make the same phone call as you. It all starts with a phone call that you are perfectly capable of making.

So what are the alternatives?

Foreclosure, Deed in lieu, and Short sale.

At the end of the day it seems as if everyone would love to avoid foreclosure. And if you haven't qualified for a loan modification you're only left with a couple of choices. "Deed in Lieu" or "short sale".

Deed in Lieu is where you cooperate with the bank to essentially hand back the keys, transfer title back to the bank. Sounds easy enough but some banks may require you to attempt a short sale first...At this point, the banks don’t want any more homes in their inventory. A deed-in-lieu is basically is a foreclosure that you agree to with the bank, relieving them of the trouble and expense of going through the actual foreclosure

What is a short sale? A short sale is a property that sells for less than the balance owed on the mortgage. The lender accepts a discount on the mortgage to avoid a possible foreclosure auction or bankruptcy. The property would be purchased from a seller with the banks permission.

As you are probably aware short sales have become very common over the past few years and have played a major role in our housing recovery. The main reason is it offers many benefits to both the homeowner and the bank. Foreclosing on a home is timely and costly, so no bank prefers to foreclose, most times, they would much rather use an alternative measure like a short sale. In fact some banks are offering big short sale cash incentives to entice homeowner to list and short sale their property.

Even our Government has stepped in and created a short sale program that if you qualify, it waives any deficiency and also pays relocation assistance money to you at closing to help you get started at a new property. They have also created temporary tax policy until the end of 2012 (which we hope they extend) that again if you qualify, you will not owe any tax on the forgiven mortgage balance.

Given the great current short sale programs that are in place, If have you think that you may be a candidate for a short sale, now may be the time.