Palm Beach County Bar Association - Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program

Below, from the Palm Beach County Bar Association website, I have the details, forms and FAQ’s regarding the Florida State Supreme Court mandated pre-summary judgment mediated meeting between the foreclosed-upon homeowner and their lenders representative…

What is foreclosure?
Foreclosure is a legal process by which the mortgage holder causes the judicial sale of the secured real estate to pay a defaulted loan. The mortgage on real estate acts as collateral for the repayment of the loan so when this loan is in default, the mortgage holder exercises its rights to take the collateral by selling the home.

What is the RMFM Program?
The RMFM Program is the Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program that has been ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, and the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court. This program mandates that all homestead foreclosure lawsuits filed on or after July 12, 2010, be sent to mediation prior to any final order being issued.

How do I enter the RMFM Program?
All homestead foreclosure suits that are filed on or after July 12, 2010 will be automatically referred to the RMFM Program. The Program Manager will contact you based on information received from the lender. However, if you have been served with a foreclosure suit and/or your contact information has changed, please contact the RMFM Program directly at (866) 900-4254 (toll free)

I am a Homeowner who was served with a foreclosure lawsuit filed before July 12, 2010. Can I participate in the RMFM Program?
You may request a referral to this Program by filing a Borrower’s Request to Participate in the RMFM Program (download copy here). File this request with the Court and mail a copy of the request to the lawyer for the Lender.

Is there a cost to me to participate in the RMFM Program?
There is no cost to homeowners for this program. The Plaintiff (usually the bank) pays the required fees, which include financial counseling and the mediation session. In the event that you choose to have a second mediation session, you will have to pay $100, which is one-half of the fees for this session. The Program anticipates that one mediation session will be sufficient for most cases and this second mediation is optional.

What financial disclosure information will I need to provide to the lender to proceed to mediation?
Most borrowers will need to file the Foreclosure Mediation Financial Worksheet (click here for that document).
Homeowners must sign and then mail, hand-deliver or fax the Release (last page of the financial agreement) to the RMFM program before the Program can schedule mediation.
Mail or hand-deliver to: Palm Beach County Bar Association, RMFM Program, 1601 Belvedere Road, Suite 304E, West Palm Beach, FL 33406.
Fax to: (561) 828-3922
Email with Release as a pdf to mediations@palmbeachbar.org
Borrowers will need to file Fannie Mae Hardship Form 1021 if they are seeking a Short Sale or Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure. (click here for that form)
For short sales, borrowers also need to file a signed purchase contract for the residence or a listing agreement for the sale of the residence, a preliminary HUD -1 form, and written permission from the borrower authorizing the bank or the bank's representative to speak with the real estate agent about the borrower's loan.
For Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure, a current title search for the residence should also be uploaded.

What is a short sale?
A short sale is a sale for less than you owe on the mortgage loan.

What is a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure?
A Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure is when you voluntarily execute a deed that transfers the property to the lender in exchange for the lender canceling, in part or in whole, the debt owed on the property.

Do I have the right to consult with an attorney?
Yes. You have the right to consult with an attorney at any time during the mediation process and to bring an attorney with you to the mediation session. You do not have to have an attorney; you may represent yourself. If you cannot afford an attorney, you may call the Legal Aid Society of Palm Beach County and inquire about their pro bono foreclosure assistance program, Monday through Friday, 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., (561) 655-8944 ext. 325 or (toll free) 800-403-9353 ext. 325. You may also contact the Lawyer Referral Program at the Palm Beach County Bar Association by calling (561) 687-3266 or (561) 451-3256 (Boca/Delray). There is a $30 fee for a half-hour consultation with an attorney through the Lawyer Referral Service.

Do all Borrowers who signed the mortgage need to attend the mediation session?
Yes, all Borrowers must be present at the mediation session. If not all Borrowers can attend, the Borrower not attending should bring a completed Power of Attorney for the other Borrower.

What happens if we cannot settle during the mediation?
The parties can agree to continue to another mediation session. If that session cannot be scheduled for the same day, this session is optional and both parties have to pay one-half of the fee, or $100 each for this additional session. If the parties cannot agree at all, and reach an impasse, then the case is returned to the court.

What happens if I do not attend mediation?
The case is returned to the court.

Link to Frequently Asked Questions About Mediation

Homeowner Forms

Help for Homeowners in Foreclosure – FREE!
presented by the Palm Beach County Bar Association & The Legal Aid Society of Palm Beach CountyFind out how the Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program Can Help You
Space is limited. To reserve your seat, call the Palm Beach County Bar Association at (561) 687-2800
or RSVP by email

StreetInsider.com - Schiff: Look Out Below! Home Prices to Fall Additional 20%

A ‘Happy New Year’ news story from Peter Schiff…one of the earliest predictors of the ‘pop’ of the housing bubble.

December 30, 2010 10:50 AM EST

According to Peter Schiff, the recent drop in home prices  is unnerving, but there is still another 20% drop to go before we reach a historical trend line. (emphasis mine)

Schiff notes that some economists anticipate a further correction, but most don't believe that the vicious correction of 2007 and 2008 could return. To counter, Schiff notes that many underestimate how distorted the market had become.

From the start of 1998 through the middle of 2006, arguably at the peak of the market, the Case-Shiller 10-City Index rose an astounding 173% at 19.2% per year. Schiff notes that we now know that the gains had little to do with fundamentals and more to do with "distortionary government policies that mandated  loans to marginal borrowers, and set off a national mania for real-estate wealth and a torrent of temporarily easy credit."

One of the co-founders of the Case-Shiller index, Robert Shiller, contends that home prices, from 1900 - 2000, followed a more muted 3.35% average growth rate, which included the Great Depression, post-war eras, and the boom of the 90's.

So, Schiff notes that in 1998, the Case-Shiller index was at 82.7. Following the 3.35% average annual price increase predicted by Shiller lands us at a point of 126.7 in October 2010. However, the Case-Shiller Index came in at 159.0, suggesting an additional 20.3% decline in the index to get it back to more normalized levels.

Schiff continues that no one is making a case that fundamentals have gained traction, and most point to government intervention as an artificial stop to the free fall. Programs like "the home buyer's tax credit, record low mortgage rates, government mortgage-assistance programs, and the increased presence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration in the mortgage-buying business" have put the kibosh on falling prices for now.

But, contends Schiff, with "bloated inventories, 9.8% unemployment (and much higher REAL unemployment), a dysfunctional mortgage industry and shattered illusions of real-estate riches, does it makes sense that prices should simply fall back to the trend line?" He argues that they will overshoot to the downside.

So what's the outcome? A major market correction in the next year.
Schiff thinks not, rather that there may be potential for an additional 10% dip below the 100-year trendline in the next five years, especially if mortgage rates continue upwards to more historical rates of 6% or more. He notes that that would put the index at 114.02, or about 28.3% below where were at now. Even a 5% dip would put the index at 120.36, about 24.3% below current levels.

Concluding, Schiff comments that, "In trying to maintain artificial prices, government policies are keeping new buyers from entering the market, exposing taxpayers to untold trillions in liabilities and delaying a real recovery. We should recognize this reality and not pin our hopes on a return to price normalcy that never was that normal to begin with."

 

A little Christmas gift for all of my blog readers in Lakeview Estates

I have put together a report...a quick read...with many interesting stories and details regarding the origins of contemporary Christmas Traditions. Click on the image and read or download the entire booklet if you like. Feel free to pass it along to others too!

Has anyone seen my $3.3 Trillion?

Now, you and I might lose track of where we spent that $20 bill we had in our pocket...but Mr. Bernake can't seem to remember where he spent (our) $3.3 TRILLION! Courtesy of my friends, Brian and Frank, at Think Big, Work Small

A Thanksgiving wish

Finally! One of the big guys admits it!

Thanks to the NotoriousROB blog for the heads-up on this video. Keep in mind while you watch this that this is a Keller Williams agent recruiting video...



And this is why I opened a small, personalized office long ago...I realized that it was me, my wife and our like-minded agents that our clients were hiring...not some company logo.

 I don't think many realty companies, large or small, make ANY promise to the consumer other than vague platitudes "we are the biggest/we sell the most etc., nothing like "we hire only the most highly skilled/we fire the bad agents...you know what I mean. And the ones that do make consumer based promises often do absolutely nothing to actually KEEP AND ENFORCE that promise, from recruiting, to rules, to marketing, to service standards.

But it is refreshing to finally see one of the big guys admit what the consumer already knows: It is the AGENTS, not the company.

All of the big franchises say that they have the best agents...etc, etc. But if you've ever gone on an interview as a real estate agent, you would know that there is never a competency test, ethics test or any kind of test for that matter. As a matter of fact, it is usually a 'reverse' interview...with the agent deciding whom THEY want to go work for. It's almost: If you have a license, you have a job.

There's no free lunch

I have started to see this being promoted recently by mail and on the radio.

"If we don't sell your house in ___days...WE'LL BUY IT!"

Sounds great...especially in this market. Worth checking out? That's what the agent is hoping you'll think. Get their phone to ring...but they'll most likely never discuss the details over the phone..."much to complicated and need to see your home to see if it qualifies"...get the foot in the door.  But there is NEVER a free lunch; there is always a cost associated.

But, particularly in this type of market, it would be "good business" if the agent NEVER bought any homes, or if they did, that they were purchased at such a drastic discount that the seller could do better selling the home themselves. 

I have gone to several seminars where they promoted this (tactic/gimmick) and it starts out sounding something like this:
" Mr./Mrs. homeowner, a big dilemma when making your move is deciding whether to buy 1st or sell 1st. Either way is risky as you could end up with 2 homes (or no home). Our unique/innovative/etc.,  Guaranteed Sale Program solves this dilemma...you get our personal guarantee that if we don't sell your home in 90/120/180 days, we will buy it at a price acceptable to you. Now, WE take all the risk from you and you can immediately place a confident offer on another home".

The hidden details usually follow some or all of these general guidelines:

• Must purchase one of the agents listings...or at least buy a 'full commission' home with them
• Seller must still pay a full commission on the 'guaranteed' sale
• Quite often an 'upfront' fee or guaranteed sale program fee of anywhere from $295 to fees in the thousands
• "Agreed upon" price well below appraisal/market value...could be as low as the 80% range, then subtract commissions, fees, closing costs etc.
• Original list price 5% below comparables
• Seller is REQUIRED to continually lower the asking price during the 90 day (or whatever the guarantee period is)...for example: 100%  for 1st 30 days, 90% day 30-60, 80% day 60-90, at which point they have reached their 'guarantee' point (but minus a full commission, etc.)
• Sign the listing agreement first...then the guaranteed purchase details come later
• May be a maximum allowable program price
• Restrictions on home condition
• Use the language "I'll buy it for 'list' price", but fail to say that the 'list' price is the 80% ENDING list price

If they'll buy it for the full price that they agree to list it for...then that's putting their money where their dog and pony show is.

Think about these few points:

• With as difficult as it is to get a mortgage now, COULD your agent actually perform on their guarantee? Ask to speak with their mortgage lender...do your due diligence as with any other buyer.
• If they don't need a mortgage and have a few $million sitting around to buy homes that don't sell in 90 days, why are they a real estate agent?
• Are they "flipping" the purchase option to an investor? Are they going to list the home for the investor once they buy it?
• Can they assign the guaranteed sale price (as in a wholesaler)?

Good, solid, cutting-edge marketing, a detailed understanding of the local and national economic factors affecting home values, subdivision level market knowledge, ability to analyze trends...trust and mutual respect...THIS is what is needed today.


Thanks for reading

I hate to say "I told you so"...but

"GET READY FOR THE GREAT MERS WHITEWASH BILL"

"Wall Street money is pouring into the coffers of those who are receptive (i.e., almost everyone in Congress). The legislation is already being drafted under the interstate commerce clause to ratify MERS and everything it did retroactively. It appears that the Obama administration is ready to pardon all the securitization deviants by signing this bill into law. This information is corroborated by several people who are in sensitive positions — persons who would be the first to know such proposals. Fortunately, there are some people in Washington who have a conscience and do not want to see this happen."

John Carney, CNBC--"When Congress comes back into session next week, it may consider measures intended to bolster the legal status of a controversial bank owned electronic mortgage registration system that contains three out of every five mortgages in the country.

The system is known as MERS, the acronym for a private company called Mortgage Electronic Registry Systems. Set up by banks in the 1997, MERS is a system for tracking ownership of home loans as they move from mortgage originator through the financial pipeline to the trusts set up when mortgage securities are sold.

The system has come under scrutiny by critics who charge MERS with facilitating slipshod practices. Recently, lawyers have filed lawsuits claiming that banks owe states billions of dollars for mortgage recording fees they avoided by using MERS...

Now it appears that Congress may attempt to prevent any MERS' meltdown from occurring. MERS is owned by all the biggest banks, and they certainly do not want it to be sunk by huge fines...And be subject to court challenges on mortgage ownership by foreclosure defense attorneys.

Investors in mortgage-backed securities also do not want to see the value of their bonds sink because of doubts about the ownership of the underlying mortgages.

Remember, this is the SAME Congress that "almost" passed the "Notarization Act" by voice vote and it reached Obama's desk. We will never know who voted for it, as a voice vote is not recorded, and it flew threw BOTH House and Senate.

So it looks like the stage may be set for Congress to pass a bill that would limit MERS exposure on the recording fee issue and perhaps retroactively legitimize mortgage transfers conducted through MERS' private database...."

Just look at my post of 10/26 on my Winston Trails blog at www.WinstonTrails.info ...this is EXACTLY what I feared would happen. Too big to fail also means too big to have to comply with the laws I guess. When was the last time you broke the law and then had legislation passed on your behalf?  I don't want to turn this into a politcal blog...but...

That is one heck of a 5 o’clock shadow

Standard & Poor’s, known as a leader of financial market intelligence, has revised estimates for when we can expect this much-talked-about shadow inventory to clear up. S&P now estimates that it will take 41 months—or nearly three and a half years—to get through and sell off all that shadow inventory lurking in the national real estate market background.

This number is up drastically from it’s assessment a year ago when it estimated it would take 33 months to complete this process…(That’s 25% longer than their last estimate and these guys are the “leader in financial market intelligence”?) S&P’s report states that the growth in the nation’s shadow inventory is affecting the housing market in three ways.

First, low liquidation rates are artificially skewing the visible supply of these distressed properties on the market. Second, this ever-growing inventory is having a negative affect on existing home prices. And finally, home prices will only begin to stabilize once this shadow inventory backlogged is cleared out.

Check out my video-tip blog...lots of useful info

Just click on the image above

Jon Stewart gets to the bottom of this foreclosure mess!

Be forewarned...this IS a Jon Stewart video...make sure no one easily offended is watching over your shoulder!

Foreclosures gone wild...the trilogy.

Rather than repeat the entirety of all three recent posts that attempt to explain this recent foreclosure mess/fraud...here are the links to the actual posts over on my Winston Trails blog.

Foreclosures Gone Wild 1

Foreclosures Gone Wild 2

Foreclosures Gone Wild 3

U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms - Bloomberg

The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market…

“Whether it’s the sidelined, shadow or current inventory, the issue is there’s more supply than demand,” said Oliver Chang, a U.S. housing strategist with Morgan Stanley in San Francisco. “Once you reach a bottom, it will take three or four years for prices to begin to rise 1 or 2 percent a year.”…

Fannie Mae Forecast

Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage finance company, today lowered its forecast for home sales this year, projecting a 7 percent decline from 2009. A drop in demand after the April 30 tax credit expiration “suggests weakening home prices” in the third quarter, according to Fannie Mae…

8 Million

Douglas Duncan, chief economist for Washington-based Fannie Mae, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview last week that 7 million U.S. homes are vacant or in the foreclosure process. Morgan Stanley’s Chang said the number of bank-owned and foreclosure-bound homes that have yet to hit the market is closer to 8 million…

In addition to the as many as 8 million properties vacant or in foreclosure, owners of another 3.8 million homes -- 5 percent of U.S. households -- said they are “very likely” to put their properties on the market within six months if there is improvement, according to a survey</a> by Seattle-based Zillow.

“This has the potential to create a sawtooth pattern along the bottom,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said in a telephone interview. “Homes begin to sell and a few sidelined sellers rush into the marketplace and flood the marketplace.” …

The Obama administration’s effort to help mortgage holders, HAMP, is another source of future inventory as owners with new loan terms re- default, Ritholtz said. About half of the modifications done in 2009 were behind in payments by the first quarter of 2010, according to the Treasury Department…

 

Read the full article by clicking the link below…(if you dare)

U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms - Bloomberg

WHY IS THE BANK FORECLOSING IF I AM DOING A SHORT SALE (OR LOAN MODIFICATION)?

A local attorney who counsels many of our clients, Richard Zaretsky, has just posted this excellent article on his blog. It answers the very common, but perplexing question posed above.

Do We All Have A Common Goal?  Do all short sellers cooperate with the short sale process?  The answer is a resounding NO.  The short seller is typically living in the house "for free" and is not all that interested in moving out and paying rent.  Therefore, short sellers are notoriously delay oriented. Banks believe this to be a fact.

I Want To Stay!  Loan Modification borrowers are in a somewhat different boat.  They don't have any plan to move out of the house as they want to modify the loan to something more affordable.

They Want WHAT!?!@?  Short Sellers and Loan Modification borrowers have something in common - they have to accept the lender's terms of the short sale or loan modification or face loss of the home through foreclosure.  The alternative of the loss of the house in foreclosure is usually not an desirable option.  The lender can never be sure that (a) the buyer in a short sale is not going to walk away from the sale at the last minute, (b) the seller will accept the demands the lender conditions the short sale approval upon, or (c) the borrower will accept the loan modification terms offered by the lender (if any are offered at all).

Hurry Up and Wait?  So knowing or believing all the above, if you were the lender and you knew that from start to finish the mortgage foreclosure process was going to take 300 to 700 days and the short sale or modification may or may not end up successful, would you wait 3 or 5 months for a short sale contract or for the borrower to submit complete loan modification information - BEFORE you started the clock on the foreclosure process?  OF COURSE NOT!  Therefore, even if you have a good faith intention to proceed with a short sale or loan modification, the lender will NOT stop a pending suit or delay filing an otherwise ripe suit for foreclosure.  The result is one hand of the lender pursues solutions with the borrower and the other hand of the lender pursues solutions against the borrower - all at the same time.

Remind Me To Stop Before I Drive Off the Cliff!   Even the HAFA and HAMP programs have guidelines for participating lenders that state that the lender will not have to stop the foreclosure process - but only that if a borrower is accepted into the processing of under HAFA or HAMP, the lender will not actually have the foreclosure sale!  But they can go all the way to getting a foreclosure sale date set!

So if you are trying a short sale or modification, don't be surprised when the Sheriff rings your doorbell at 6 a.m. with a subpoena and summons and complaint for foreclosure even though the nice people at the bank are helping you in your "solution".  If you are 90 days or more late (typically), you should expect that visit and introduction to your foreclosure complaint very very soon.  And once you get served BE SURE TO IMMEDIATELY CONTACT YOUR ATTORNEY TO DISCUSS THE FORECLOSURE AND WHAT SHOULD BE DONE ABOUT IT.

Read Richards entire article here: WHY IS THE BANK FORECLOSING IF I AM DOING A SHORT SALE (OR LOAN MODIFICATION)?

Freddie Mac estimates home sales to fall another 23% in 3Q

Below are a few of today’s housing industry headlines:

1. Freddie Mac expects 4 million new and existing home sales in the third quarter, a possible 20.7% decline from last year and 23% drop from the previous quarter.
2. Kondaur (distressed note buyer) chief executive Jon Daurio joined Moody's Investors Service analysts saying he expects prices to fall another 20%…Daurio said he expects the drop to occur over the next three years.

You can read the article here: Freddie Mac estimates home sales to fall another 23% in 3Q « HousingWire

Thinking about pursuing a loan modification? In the middle of a loan modification negotiation? Read this...

Working on the inside of this industry, it is easy to see through the smoke and mirrors being used by the TBTF (too big too fail) lenders when it comes to "extend and pretend". They will do what is in THEIR best interests regardless of public statements to the contrary.

I have seen too many borrowers taken advantage of when attempting to negotiate a forebearance or loan mod without professional and legal assistance. The banks are no better than low-life debt collectors that will say anything to get some more money out of someone. But now, people have had enough and it is getting some national press...consumers are suing the banks for not following through on loan mod committments.

Read the full article from today's USA today HERE

If you have ANY questions regarding your loan, please give me a call. I promise that if I don't know the answer or solution right away, I will find out or point you in the direction of the person who does know. My direct line is 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading

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FDLE Florida Sexual Offenders and Predators - Offender Search

Experts and news outlets surprised: Home sales plunge!

But if you read this blog…YOU shouldn’t have been surprised at all. I have been counseling my sellers for many months now…you want to be the NEXT home to sell!

Here are some snippets from some of today's press releases:

1) Sales of previously occupied homes plunged last month to the lowest level in 15 years, despite the lowest mortgage rates in decades and bargain prices in many areas.

July's sales fell by more than 27 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. It was the largest monthly drop on records dating back to 1968, and sharp declines were recorded in all regions of the country.

2) With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.

Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.

Inventory has also continued to climb, rising 2.5% to 3.98 million existing homes for sale. That represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since October 1982 when it stood at 13.8 months. A six-month of supply is considered normal.

Chart of existing home sales…watch out for that falling knife!

"....Purchases of existing homes plunged 27.2 percent to a 3.83 million...Estimates in the Bloomberg survey of 74 economists ranged from 3.96 million to 5.3 million..." Good job experts

Still want to listen to the ‘experts’?

If you are even thinking that you may want/need to sell anytime in the near and not-so-near future…please give me a call so we can have a lively discussion regarding my recommendations. My direct line is 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading,

Steve

Foreclosures in Lakeview Estates...as of 8/4/10

Lots of homes in foreclosure in Lakeview Estates...and more to come.

Now, just because I report them as "foreclosures" does not mean that they are owned by the bank and are for sale for pennies on the dollar....at least not yet. What it means is that these homes have a Lis Pendens filed on them. From Nolo Law Dictionary: Lis Pendens: Latin for "a suit pending." A written notice that a lawsuit has been filed concerning real estate, involving either the title to the property or a claimed ownership interest in it.

There are currently 9 Lakeview Estates homes reported to be in foreclosure as of today. A few of the ones on this list have already been taken back by the bank at the courthouse sale. Below I will report them by street, alphabetically.

• Blue Bay - 3
• Brickyard - 2
• Hudson Bay - 1
• Turtle Point - 1
• Windy Preserve - 2

If you are 1 of these 9 homes, or if you may be on this list next month...PLEASE call me today so you can learn what options you have and which is the best one for your particular situation. Don't ignore the issue...it won't just go away, and "letting the bank take it" is most likely the worst option you have. Here is my direct line: 561-602-1258

Inflation? Deflation?

Every day, from cable news to the local paper, we are told that inflation is coming...then the next expert says we are in a deflationary spiral...what does it all mean and whom do we believe?

It would seem that everyone is right...here is the best and easiest to explain/understand definition/comparison-contrast of inflation and deflation:

I've seen some quotes equating to deflation as the things you own, and inflation as the things you need. Close, but the real explanation is more like this:

Prices declines are occuring in goods/services sectors backed by debt resulting from contracting credit...things that you would normally use a loan/credit to buy (deflation). Price increases are occurring in goods/services sectors acquired with money resulting from increasing money supply (inflation), (things like food, utilities, gas for the car, etc ).

Ben can print money 'til the cows come home, showering every citizen with $10k, $100k, $1m per year/quarter/month. All that will happen is a direct escalation in prices of assets not backed by debt. Price increases for items backed by debt will not resume/recur until there is an underlying organic demand for credit and a corresponding easing in credit terms (inflation). That is, the so-called final (ie private) demand.

And there you have it...

Mortgage applications at a 13 year low...so why is that important?

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that demand for loans to purchase U.S. homes sunk to a 13-year low last week, and refinancing demand also slid despite near record-low mortgage rates. Requests for loans to buy homes dropped 3.1 percent in the week ended July 9, after adjusting for the Independence Day holiday, to the lowest level since December 1996, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. said....Rock-bottom borrowing costs are helping borrowers with pristine credit to buy and those who still have equity in their homes to refinance.

Take a look at this statistic and chart below: The refinance share of mortgage activity remained constant at 78.7 percent of total applications…so, at a 13 year low number, only 21% of the mortgage applications were for new purchases! On an unadjusted basis, the volume of purchase applications is 43% lower than the same week last year!



If even at sub-5% rates buyers are not interested, what’s going to happen to buying interest if (when) rates go up?

• Unemployed people do not buy homes.
• People who have had their hours or salary reduced 20-30% do not buy homes.
• People with a credit score of 599 or less (25% of the population) do not qualify to buy a home.
• People who lost 30% of their home equity can not sell their existing home to buy a new one.

Where I see the most activity (and a lot of multiple offer situations) is in the sub $150k range…where you can buy and have payments less than a comparable rental. Maybe this is what will happen going forward in all price ranges…activity and competition will greatly increase when the home price/mortgage rate equation delivers monthly payments at or close to what it would cost to rent a comparable home. And, it does not, necessarily have to come from lower prices or lower interest rates….if rental rates increase, that will be the ‘flip side’ of the equation. Rising rental rates, in my humble opinion, are quite possible given the scary statistic of sub 599 credit score Americans. Going forward I can see many, many more people throwing in the “credit score towel”…we will have a decade of renters (and this could raise rental rates)…income reduction, job loss, foreclosures, bankruptcy…some times up to ten years to clear/restore your credit without taking affirmative credit restoration steps.

If you’d like to discuss how this all affects your plans to sell or buy, please give me a call on my direct line at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,
Steve Jackson

A 4th of July gift for you...

Here is a wonderful acapella version of our national anthem

Disastrous home sales report - July 1, 2010

The experts expected home sales to drop once the homebuyer tax credit lapsed at the end of April, but the depth of the decrease was shocking (only to the “experts”).

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), pending home sales fell a whopping 30% in May. Their index, which measures signed sales contracts but not closed sales, plunged to 77.6 from 110.9 in April. It's even off 15.9% from a year ago when the nation was barely emerging from the recession.

The pending home sales report is a disaster," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "Sales fell off a cliff after the tax credit expired. It's the biggest monthly decline ever and the index is at its lowest level since NAR began tracking it in 2001."

(As expected)…Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, downplayed the damage a bit. According to him, customers rushed into deals to claim the credit, borrowing from May sales. Once the economic recovery comes into full swing, housing markets will heat up. "If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year," said Yun, "and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions."

The question is when -- or if -- the job market will ever bounce back.

"We're not creating jobs," said Larson. "The housing problems now are being driven by broad economic problems."

Disastrous home sales report - Jul. 1, 2010

Lakeview Estates market activity recap...on-the-market, sold and under contract

Only 1 reported sale in the past 30 days:

• 6514 Blue Bay: Aspen, pool...Short Sale...Sold @ $250k

There have been just 7 reported sales in the previous 12 months.

• 2 Short Sales
• 2 Foreclosure Sales
• 3 traditional sales

There are 4 homes currently on the market:

• Acupulco, pool @ $329k...53 days on the market
• Sanibel, lake, pool @ $385k...9 days on the market
• Riviera, lake @ $215...73 days on the market
• Antigua, pool @ $299k...229 days on the market

Under contract we have 1 home:

• A Palm Beach, lake, pool...asking price of $390k

Thanks for taking the time to read our updates and reports. If there is a subject you would like us to cover, please send us an email.

Steve and Jackie Jackson

What is everyone searching for?

Recently there has been a ton of good news being reported in the real estate segment. Resale home sales were up huge...new home sales were up big too...every talking head is predicting the end of the housing slump. Not so fast. I have done some research regarding some little publicized web traffic statistics, and that tells us..The Rest Of The Story!

The company, Hitwise, a web-traffic analysis company, recently published the following trend chart:

What this chart reveals is that year-over-year visits to websites in the Real Estate category are down 22% for April 2010...that is 11 consecutive months of traffic decline for visits to Real Estate For Sale sites! It is painfuly obvious that buyer interest is declining. Now, lets look at another Hitwise chart:

The above chart from Hitwise reports that visits to “Home and Apt Rental” websites are up 45% in April 2010 year-over-year, and that represents the tenth consecutive month of increases!

Finally, Hitwise reports: “The most popular term ranked by the overall share of search clicks is ‘apartments for rent’, which has increased 162% for the 4 weeks ending May 8, 2010 when compared to the same time period 2 years ago.” For the Home and Apt Rental websites, visits have increased year-over-year for the past 10 months. 

Now, every real estate agent will tell you that 90% or more of all homebuyers use the Internet during the home purchase process... So, a 22% decline for traffic to real estate sites, combined with 45% increase for rentals suggests that the market demand for housing sales might be a whole lot softer, and headed in a different direction, than widely reported economic data indicates.

People will choose to rent for 2 main reasons...they can't buy a home or they don't want to buy a home.
A large number of people today who CAN'T buy fall into a two categories: 1) No job/job or income instability, 2) credit issues. Hopefully, the job situation will improve consistently going forward, but the number of people with credit issues will most likely continue to rise. Think about the statistic in this following chart: (look at the very left bar in the graph)

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The state with the greatest percentage of people at least 30 days late on their mortgage is...FLORIDA! Over 1 out of every 4 people with a mortgage is 30 or more days behind.
 
It is common knowledge that missing mortgage payments will deliver a pretty significant hit to ones credit score. And with the abject failure of the Govt. HAMP (loan modification) program, it is a fairly safe bet that a large number of people currently behind on their mortgage will end up eventually either losing their home in a foreclosure action or successfully completing a short sale (the much better alternative). In either case, these folks will not be purchasing a homeduring the next 2 years, or more. These are ones who can't buy a home.
 
Then you have large segment who still believe that it is not a good time to buy..they are renters by choice, and their numbers are growing daily.
 
Now, I personally know that many investors are plowing money into the real estate market, although they are very selective and are making decisions that factor in NO appreciation for 5 or more years. And, there are still buyers out there. They are balancing the historically low interest rates, low home prices and reduced competition against the chance that home values will decline further. But most of my buyers today have a long enough time horizon to give them the confidence that the combo of interest rate and home prices makes it a good time to buy.
 
Any homeowners reading this who are considering moving in the next 24 months or so should seriously consider getting your home on the market sooner, rather than later. Sell, get you money in the bank now, and rent for a while if you need to. It may be a bit inconvenient, but it appears that this may be the smartest move.

Foreclosures in Lakeview Estates

 

As of today, there are 9 Lakeview Estates homes in some stage of foreclosure. (on 4/1 there were 7)

• 3 on Blue Bay
• 2 on Windy Preserve
• 2 on Brickyard
• 1 on Hudson Bay
• 1 on Turtle Point 

Short Sale Myths

Short Sale Myths De-Bunked


RISMEDIA, May 13, 2010—With short sales making up almost 35% of home sales in March and the country with a national foreclosure problem, I Short Sale, Inc., one of the largest short sale firms in the U.S., sets the record straight on common short sale myths.

1. You must be default on your mortgage to negotiate a short sale. Short sales are not a function of default status on a mortgage. They are the result of the bank mitigating a potential default situation that, in the long run, will cost more money to the investors. We have completed many short sales in instances when the borrower was not in a default situation.

2. Listing my home as a short sale is embarrassing. Anytime we get ourselves into a tough financial situation it can cause some embarrassing feelings. It is important to remember that those feelings will not help us get back onto stable financial ground. We need to overcome our feelings and do what is right to protect our financial futures.

3. Buyers aren't interested in short sale properties. Short Sale properties are often times available at a competitive price to other properties on the market. In many cases, short sale properties are very well cared for and have not had to endure the deferred maintenance of a REO property. Short Sale properties are in great demand in the marketplace.

4. There's not enough time to negotiate a short sale before foreclosure. A good negotiator takes into account the timeline affiliated with a foreclosure. There is always a chance that a short sale can be negotiated. However, the only way to know for sure is to try.

5. The bank would rather foreclose than complete a short sale. Banks do not want to foreclose on property. It is expensive and carries a high level of liability once the bank owns that property as an REO. Wherever possible, banks are seeking other loss mitigation options before foreclosure.

6. Short sales are impossible and never get approved. Short sales are complicated, but not impossible. We negotiate short sale approvals every day.

Lakeview Estates market activity

Sold
1) Paramount Palm Beach Plus 5, pool, lake - $365,000

Under Contract
1) Short Sale Aspen, pool - $299,000 asking price
2) Riviera, lake - $315,000 asking price

On The Market

1) Short Sale Riviera, lake - $305,000 asking
2) Antigua, pool - $329,900 asking
3) Acapulco, pool - $343,000 asking
4) Aspen plus 5, lake, pool - $384,999 asking
5) Palm Beach, lake, pool - $390,000 asking